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Adam Johnson
Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.
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Protecting the Perimeter
Cybersecurity at Scale
- Cybersecurity is an $85B addressable market increasing 15% per year according to Gartner Group
- Cloud deployment is transforming security protocols by introducing perpetual upgrades/enhancements
- World #1 cybersecurity provider sees double-digit growth ahead as customer spend continues to increase
Keep Me Safe – Working from Home is no longer a Covid thing. It’s an emerging component of our New Normal, made possible by an evolving balance between cloud-deployed computation and AI-enhanced security protocols. No longer can companies simply firewall legacy systems in-house, they have to project power abroad, the modern equivalent of sending battleships thousands of miles over the horizon. Gartner Group pegs the cost to corporate American at $85B, as more than half the Chief Technology Officers in a recent Needham & Co. say they will continue to spend more on security… and critically none will spend less. Several years ago I owned the top-ranked cybersecurity provider when the market was about a quarter its current size. Now I’m buying it back. The stock is not cheap, but it’s off the highs and this sector shows no signs of slowing.
August 05, 2022
Read MoreRecession… What Recession?
Top Industrial Guides Up
- Stellar earnings beat and higher quarterly guidance paint very different picture from recession narrative
- Cheap valuation in both absolute and historic terms provides compelling entry point near one-year low
- Wall St analysts bullish on this beaten down industrial and see notable 12-month appreciation potential
Morning in America? – Recession is not only the consensus call among Wall Street strategists and media-loving pundits, it has become their Gospel. The notion that the Fed will dodge a so-called hard-landing, and effectively engineer growth as it simultaneously raises rates, is deemed impossible by these oft-quoted experts… but what if the experts are wrong? Or, what if we’re already in a recession (Q1 was down) and by the time we realize it, we will have already have come out and resumed growing? The bond market may have figured this out. The benchmark 10-yr note has retreated from a five year high of 3.20% a few weeks ago to about 2.70% today. The message is that the Fed’s entire rate-hike cycle of the next several months was fully priced in, and now we need to think about the opposite… rate CUTS that get us back to growth. I recognize this “soft-landing” scenario is all very theoretical, but the country’s leading renter of industrial equipment is telling investors the future looks bright, having recently beaten estimates and raised guidance. Management sees broad-based demand across multiple sectors, and I think it’s an important data point. Ditto the bond market. Our road ahead looks much brighter than consensus would have us believe.
August 05, 2022
Read MoreJust One Word: Plastics
High Growth at a Low Price
- Industrial valuations have fallen significantly on concern that US recession is all but inevitable
- Differentiated manufacturers are raising prices and preserving margin despite record input costs
- One specialized polymer producer expects growth to accelerate this year as demand remains robust
Plastics – There’s an immortal line from the 1967 movie The Graduate, and it has nothing to do with Mrs. Robinson. “Ben, just one word: Plastics. There’s a great future in plastics. Think about it.” That was fifty-five years ago, and plastics still give us a lot to think about. They form the blades of electricity-generating windmills, fuselage components of Boeing aircraft and body armor panels that protect our troops in combat. As investors wring their hands over the threat of rates and recession, the stocks of specialty chemical companies are getting pummeled. But have we gotten ahead of ourselves? I think so, and one uniquely positioned producer has caught my attention. It’s growing double-digits, raising prices and trading at its cheapest valuation in years. Plastics, think about it.
August 05, 2022
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3
As in M2 money supply fell 3% last quarter compared to 25% growth last year.
#FedIsTightening
12
As in Elon Musk says he needs to build 12 new factories to meet Tesla’s production goal of 20M vehicles by 2030.
#TheChallengeIsBatteries
528
As in US Payrolls grew 528k in July, the most since February.
#WhatRecession?
“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– LinkedIn Co-founder Reed Hoffman
#AmericanIngenuity
“Every decade or so I reinvent myself and find another industry to create outsized shareholder value.”
– Retiring XPO CEO/Founder Brad Jacobs
#AlwaysMovingForward
“You can look up a 3D structure of a protein almost as easily as doing a Google keyword search.”
– DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis
#LoveHealthTech
