Bullseye explores, celebrates and invests in American Ingenuity, managing a portfolio of 35-50 publicly-traded US equities with significant runway for growth. These are dynamic, US companies propelling the world forward across multiple industries. Frequent focus sectors include Energy, Health and Technology. Every pick shares three defining attributes: great story, compelling data, timely catalyst.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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People, Food, Freight, Now Ads

Raising Target on Logistics Giant

  • Ridesharing/food delivery come of age as world’s largest platform achieves profitability two years early
  • Top shareholders adding to positions and analysts raising targets as success vindicates business model
  • New advertising platform likely accretive in year one and will power significant profit growth going forward

Where To? – The world’s most transformative logistics company is growing faster than many on Wall Street thought possible, and recent success is only the beginning. Uber earnings beat estimates by 300% in Q4, propelling the company to profitability two years sooner than expected and empowering management to announce its first-ever buyback. Analysts have finally embraced this great American growth story, with 52 of 53 raising prices and/or targets in recent weeks, but I think they’re still too low. Uber is rolling out an advertising component to the company’s signature online transportation-booking platform and it will turbo-charge revenues. With captive users clutching their iPhones to track pick-ups and order food, they’re already glued to the screen and now they’ll be staring at ads. Brilliant. In this note, I show how the new advertising feature could double earnings by 2026, setting the stage for shares to do the same. I am doubling my target price.


February 23, 2024

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Revolutionizing Supply Chains

Hands-On Goes Hands-Off

  • The market for contract logistics is estimated at $450B annually and expected to rise 45% by 2027
  • Only one-third of logistics services are outsourced despite generating operating leverage for customers
  • Rising e-commerce volumes and increasingly asset-light business models favor logistics outsourcing

Sweet Spot – My mentor of many years asked the same question to every person he interviewed: How do you make the most amount of money on Wall Street? The answer he wanted to hear, and the one that got the job, was: Find a theme and leverage it. Three mega-themes are converging right now, and one particular industry stands to benefit the most. The themes are Automation, e-Commerce and Outsourcing. The industry is contract logistics, which provides all the behind-the-scenes shipping, stocking, restocking and ordering for companies that would rather focus on making stuff than managing stuff. This is a symbiotic relationship. Companies free-up capital and resources by shedding assets and outsourcing, which drives operating leverage and higher ROE. GXO introduces efficiency by investing in robotics and real estate, spreading those costs over the entire customer base in exchange for long-term service agreements that generate their own ROE. With e-commerce at 15% of retail sales and rising half a percent per year, according to the St. Louis Fed, automated and outsourced logistics will become increasingly relevant to profitable growth. That’s why I’m buying the world’s #1 contract logistics provider. Find a theme and leverage it.


February 23, 2024

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Leveraging Artificial Intelligence

Storage, Spreadsheets and Security

  • Artificial Intelligence leverages 5G, complex data sets and cloud computing at unprecedented speed/scale
  • New tools are need to manage exponentially higher bandwidth demand on existing and NextGen platforms
  • AI is only as good as the infrastructure that enables complex number-crunching and real-time analytics

Inside the Machine – My mentor of many years would always ask the same question to people he interviewed: How do you make the most amount of money on Wall Street? The answer that got the job was “Find a theme and leverage it.” Right now that theme is Artificial Intelligence, just as Cloud Computing was three years ago and 5G before that. Arguably, all three themes are related, and this week’s new pick leverages their combination. As businesses and governments around the world begin integrating AI into their daily operations, demand for AI enabling products will rise significantly. Yes, I want to own AI software companies. I also want to own the infrastructure stocks that make AI possible. This week’s new pick is one such company… a great example of American Ingenuity.


February 23, 2024

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As in US manufacturing rises for a second month, reversing what had been an 8-month decline (Bloomberg).
#RecessionInTheRearviewMirror

10

As in EV truck maker Rivian will lay off 10% of its salaried workforce as sales continue to lag initial estimates.
#GuysWantDiesel

160

As in 160M Americans (48% of the population) watch at least one sporting event per month, according to Quartz News.
#I’llTakeTheOver 

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“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– LinkedIn Co-founder Reid Hoffman
#AmericanIngenuity

“Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point. Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations.”
– Nvidia CEO/Founder Jensen Huang
#RaisedMyTargetAgain

“People want next-day delivery but they don’t want to see a distribution center next to them.”
– CBRE Director Seth Martindale (WSJ)
#LastMileIsTheHardest