Bullseye explores, celebrates and invests in American Ingenuity, managing a portfolio of 35-50 publicly-traded US equities with significant runway for growth. These are dynamic, US companies propelling the world forward across multiple industries. Frequent focus sectors include Energy, Health and Technology. Every pick shares three defining attributes: great story, compelling data, timely catalyst.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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High Demand, Low Supply

Homebuilder in the Sweet Spot

  • Two-thirds of mortgages are 4% or lower, discouraging homeowners from selling and keeping supply tight
  • US housing market is currently undersupplied by 1.5-3.2M units according to Freddie Mac and Moody’s
  • Rate cuts could ignite a new building / buying cycle that would benefit best operators in housing industry

Supply & Demand – The US desperately needs more homes, a result of population growth and the legacy of 2008, which significantly curtailed speculative building. Housing agencies estimate a shortfall of more than 3 million homes, while private economists argue 5-6 million. Regardless, Millennials are getting married and migrants keep arriving. As the Fed lowers interest rates and mortgages become more affordable, I think housing activity will rise dramatically. Last month I added the nation’s largest building products supplier to the portfolio, and this week I am adding the nation’s top luxury homebuilder. Each is a best-in-class operator, producing a superior product at scale thanks to company-specific processes honed over decades. They both fit my paradigm of Better Mousetraps, and offer significant upside at current valuations.


July 12, 2024

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Enabling AI… Under the Radar

Top Systems Designer and Builder

  • 40% of companies in the S&P 500 mentioned Artificial Intelligence in their first quarter conference calls.
  • AI requires not only high-powered semiconductors but also multi-layered hardware and software networks.
  • Meg-cap tech companies began accelerating AI capex only last year, suggesting the cycle is still early.

Preparation – Part of my process for uncovering new stocks involves screening with a computer, where I narrow the S&P 1500 to two dozen candidates based on factors like growth, profitability or price. I then investigate each company to see what stands out. One such candidate appeared on two of my screens simultaneously last week, and that only happens a couple times a quarter. Digging deeper, I found that other stock pickers like it too… AND that the company is a partial bet on Artificial Intelligence. With so many factors lining up, this new discovery joins our American Ingenuity portfolio.


July 12, 2024

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Better Mousetrap… Better Betting

Digital Gaming Goes Mainstream

  • Half US states allow online gaming and sports betting which creates a total addressable market of $25B
  • Rising retail participation and mainstream acceptance could drive industry revenues +25% by 2028
  • Nation’s only publicly-traded, pure-play gaming platform commands 30-40% market share

Better Mousetrap – Several months ago I articulated a new investment theme called Better Mousetrap, meant to describe a company offering a unique and improved solution to an existing challenge. Cost-effective biodiesel and managed pregnancy come to mind, as does today’s new pick. The company is a leading operator and enabler of customized gaming in online environments, and its pathway to profits is accelerating. True, I could have bought it lower several quarters ago, but I’m happy to buy it here. My target implies a potential doubling in the shares.


July 12, 2024

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12

As in Amazon Prime Day sales rise 12% YoY to a record $12.7B, signaling consumer strength and economic resilience.
#Bullish

44

As in Boeing delivers 44 commercial aircraft in June, the most since December as management tries to right the ship.
#TooBigToFail

1,600

As in tax software firm Intuit is laying off 1,600 employees, citing efficiency gains from Artificial Intelligence.
#RobotTookMyJob

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“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– LinkedIn Co-founder Reid Hoffman
#AmericanIngenuity

“An AI model trained on the entire world can be overkill… you don’t need to know every TV show ever made.”
– Akamai CTO Robert Blumofe
#Can’tBeAllThingsToAllPeople

“Universities are scrambling for access to computing power… we have to balance industry and academia.”
– Columbia Engineering Chair Hod Lipson
#IndustryHasPowerOfThePurse