Bullseye explores, celebrates and invests in American Ingenuity, managing a portfolio of 35-50 publicly-traded US equities with significant runway for growth. These are dynamic, US companies propelling the world forward across multiple industries. Frequent focus sectors include Energy, Health and Technology. Every pick shares three defining attributes: great story, compelling data, newsy catalyst.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Value, Focus & Cash Flow

Energy’s New Mantra
  • Energy stocks account for just 4.3% of the S&P 500 Index compared to an all-time high of 16% in 2008
  • Legendary value buyers like Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn and Sam Zell are adding energy exposure
  • One US exploration and production company embodies the industry’s re-prioritization from risk to return

It’s their time. Pendulums swing to extremes, and energy stocks have swung so far out of favor I think 2020 will be their year. The sector accounts for just 4.3% of the S&P 500 Index, an all-time low and about one-fourth its weighting ten years ago. To put that in perspective, Exxon doesn’t even make the top ten list of largest US corporations… it ranks 14th… and Chevron is the only other oil company to even make the top 100. Energy is the only sector which is flat on the year, and the next “worst performing” group is telecom, up 16 percent. 2019 has been a virtual Siberian winter for the oil sector, but that’s beginning to change. Legendary value investors likes Buffett, Icahn and Zell are building positions. As my former boss and mentor told me years ago, “Take a high quality company down far enough and guys like us step in.”

December 12, 2019

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Sonic Internet

Music, Info, Entertainment
  • Global music-streaming subscriptions are on track to multiply tenfold over ten years through 2021
  • Sales of voice-assisted smart speakers will rise to $30B by 2024 from $4.5B in 2017 (Global Mkt Insights)
  • The pioneer in wireless multi-room home sound systems IPO’d last year and will turn profitable next year

Hey Google… Play Sting. – Getting what you want has never been so easy… assuming you’re comfortable shouting at a machine and expecting a result. Virtual assistants like Siri and Alexa are transforming how we utilize computers and even interact with the world, though voice recognition is hardly new. Hollywood first introduced us to the idea with the 1968 release of 2001: A Space Odyssey, featuring HAL the talking computer (short for Heuristically programmed ALgorithmic processor.) Modern day smart speakers debuted in 2017, and sales are rising by several billions dollars every year. They are also expected to spur a tenfold increase in the number of music streaming subscribers over the ten years through 2021. Several audio component producers stand to reap significant rewards over this time period, though the industry’s pioneer is still on top and will pivot to profitability over the next twelve months. The stock IPO’d at $15 in 2018, and has traded between $9 and $24. It’s currently in the low teens. I like the product. I like the outlook. I like the stock.

December 12, 2019

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Annual Free Lunch

25 Rebound Candidates
  • Tax loss selling at year end tends to push losing stocks to new 52-week lows by December 15
  • These same stocks tend to outperform the S&P 500 by a margin of four to one early in the new year
  • Twenty-five stocks within the S&P 1500 make this year’s list of potential bounce candidates

I thought there were no free lunches… especially on Wall Street. Then I met Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and realized there might be an exception. You may recall Jeff as the jolly podcast guest from October who delights is reciting truisms about the market, as well as sharing razor-sharp insights backed by reams of data. One of his most pointed observations revolves around the tendency for stocks which have been left for dead at year end to rally dramatically in the new year. He says relentless tax-loss selling pushes losing stocks to 52-week lows in December, but ends abruptly when the calendar turns creating a vacuum of sorts. Absent selling pressure, losers become winners and outperform the S&P 500 Index through February 15th by an average of four to one. That’s pretty compelling, and while I still affirm there are no free lunches per se, this one certainly gets my attention.

December 12, 2019

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345

As in Boeing will deliver 345 new aircraft in 2019, down from 806 last year.
#737MAX

30,000

As in Porsche has already received 30,000 down payments for its new electric speedster, the Taycan.
#PorscheOrTesla?

123,000,000,000

As in the market for cancer drugs totals $123B… and will likely double by 2024 according to EvaluatePharma.
#WhyI’mLongBiotech

 

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“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– Reed Hoffman, Co-Founder LinkedIn
#AmericanIngenuity

“We may see the re-shoring of auto parts manufacturing into the US, particularly for core components.”
– Ann Wilson of the US Motor & Equipment Manufacturer’s Association.
#USMCA

“We’ve decided to take additional time to consider the many candidates who continue to be put forward.”
– Facebook spokesperson on its decision to create a “content monitoring board” comprised of non-Facebook employees.
#BigBrothersForBigBrother