Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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On the Highway

Why I’m Still Bullish

  • Discounted cash flow analysis indicates the S&P 500 has significant upside from current levels
  • Eight sell-offs in five years have proven excellent buying opportunities for steady-handed investors
  • Stocks have rallied through previous rate hike cycles since 1980 as growth typically outpaces inflation

One number made a very big impression on me last week… 48,700. It’s the total number of heavy duty trucks purchased by U.S. shipping companies during the month of January. That works out to more than one per minute, double last year’s volume and the highest since 2006. Clearly the transportation sector has shifted into overdrive, and rising freight volume is quite bullish for the economy because it suggests increased activity. As people make more, they spend more and shippers need to ship more. Fortunately we got this data point on the same day the Dow Industrial Average suffered its worst-ever point loss, a beacon of light in the fog of selling. I have been consistently bullish based on the Two Es of Earnings and Employment. I still am, and in this issue I offer compelling new data, as well as what to buy. In short, accelerating growth matters more than rising rates. People are making money. Companies are profitable. Our economy is robust.


February 10, 2018

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My Portfolio Right Now

45 Positions and Why

  • Bullseye positions are holding their ground this year and I am actively buying on weakness
  • Favorite themes include Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Economic Expansion, Electric Vehicles & Inflation
  • Consumer spending will accelerate as tax cuts take hold and I am looking to increase exposure here

Thank you for emails and calls this week as we navigate markets together. I have long believed “one plus one equals three” and thoughtful conversations of the past several days have certainly reinforced this view. We are in this together. We will sort it out. We will make money. Global investors are struggling decide which matters more… accelerating growth or higher inflation. We already know the answer. Growth wins. While fear about rate hikes and an end to easy money may have won this week’s foot race, but I see many miles of economic expansion ahead. All 45 countries tracked by the OECD are growing together for the first time in a decade… and growth stocks are trading at a discount for the first time in months. This combination creates opportunity for thoughtful long-term investors like us to deploy capital in a meaningful way. In this special issue I show you my current portfolio and highlight key themes and opportunities. As always, feel free to email or call. I love this business and am happy to share ideas. One plus one equals three.


February 10, 2018

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Betting on A.I.

The One that Rallied

  • Only one technology company rallies 2% as the S&P 500 plunges 10% in eight trading sessions
  • Only one technology company commands 80% market share for communication among first responders
  • Only one technology company announces a $1B acquisition capable of transforming global security

Resilience, Growth and Opportunity are the three words that come to mind as I share what I learned last week about one technology company which accomplished the impossible… it rallied! As the S&P 500 Index fell 9.6% over eight trading sessions, its steepest decline in two years, only one ticker blinked green across my screen nearly the entire week. Turns out management beat earnings estimates, increased revenue guidance and announced an acquisition capable of transforming not only the company over the next several years, but global security over the next decade. Much as I wanted to nibble at favorite names which became cheaper by the hour, I had to respect both the news and the action. When a stock is one of only nine S&P 500 components rising against an entire wall of selling, you have to own it. This is about strength, and the story is compelling.


February 10, 2018

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13.1

As in Amazon’s capital expenditures on distribution rise to a record $13.1B in preparation for going head to head with UPS and FedEx.
#NothingIsSafe

23

As in Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan will receive a career high payout of $23 million as profits rise the most since 2009.
#BanksAreLeveredToGrowth

47,800

As in U.S. companies ordered 47,800 delivery trucks during January, the most in 12 years and twice as many as last year.
#BullishIndicator

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“I was astonished to hear that Qualcomm is not willing to meet until next Tuesday.”
–Broadcom CEO Hock Tan in a letter to Qualcomm Chairman Paul Jacobs after raising his bid for Qualcomm to $121B. 
#PlayingHardToGet

“We discussed regional and global developments that have a role for peace in the world and in the region.”
–Indian Prime Minister Modi during his first-ever visit to the West Bank where he pledged $40M for economic development.

#NewSuperPower?

“I think a unified Korea is stronger than two divided ones.”
–N. Korean women’s hockey player Jong Su Hyon in spite of the unified Korea team losing 8-0 to Switzerland in the first round of the Winter Olympics. 

#IAdmireHerOptimism