Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Hitting the Bullseye

3Q Picks & Performance

  • 12 of 15 new 3Q picks generate profit during the quarter and produce an average return of 5.7%
  • Bullseye’s overall return of 19.1% YTD outperforms S&P 500 Index return of 14.2% by 510 basis points
  • 8 legacy positions reach targets during 3Q and exit the portfolio with an average gain of 31.9%
  • 41 current positions span multiple sectors/themes and show little correlation with the broader market

Thank you Team Bullseye for your thoughtful feedback and generous support as picks return 5.0% during 3Q, my fifth consecutive quarter of outperformance since launching Bullseye in June of last year. Mean return for Bullseye picks rises to 19.1% YTD… which includes all winners, losers, current and closed positions this year. During the quarter I added 15 new positions and retired 8, 6 of which hit their respective upside targets while 2 were stopped at minor losses. You will notice this quarter provided some highly opportunistic entry points. New longs in energy and insurers for example, are linked directly to hurricane-related selloffs… already these positions have started to rebound. Additionally, I initiated a position in Equifax after the data breach, which exemplifies one of my favorite investment themes: When great companies stumble.


October 07, 2017

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Bullseye Road Ahead

Longs & Shorts for 4Q

  • Bullseye picks returned 5.1% during 3Q and have generated a mean return of 19.1% YTD
  • Current active positions total 41… 15 initiated in 2Q plus 18 from 1H17 and 8 from 2016
  • Average upside to target across the portfolio currently stands at 49%
  • Special Situations account for more than half of current picks and are uncorrelated with the S&P 500

We’re having a good year. Bullseye write-ups have generated a mean return of 19% YTD, significantly beating the 12.5% return of the S&P 500 Index. Currently the Bullseye portfolio numbers 41 positions, 15 of which entered during the quarter. Five stellar performers have reached their targets and I’m in the process of selling them, eight others have been retired. The current portfolio focuses on five primary themes: Unique Stories (17); When Great Companies Stumble (7); Businesses with Long Runway (5); Shorts (4); Income (3). Road Ahead provides specific analysis of each position… updated targets, current Profit/Loss and news impacting each investment thesis. It’s my way of grading performance and honing focus into year end. It’s effectively my investment roadmap for Q4.


October 07, 2017

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Think Big

Best Bank in America

  • U.S. unemployment drops to a 17-yr low of 4.2% and wages increase at the fastest pace since 2009
  • Accelerating income and proposed tax cuts provide significant stimulus for consumer spending
  • Banks are best positioned to benefit from rising consumer wealth via loan growth and higher rates
  • One bank consistently ranks in the top decile across multiple metrics and offers notable near-term upside agency

The U.S. economy is much stronger than people realize, and financial stocks will rise significantly from here… YES, from here. For months I have extolled the Two Es of Earnings and Employment as a powerful engine driving stock valuation higher, and September’s blockbuster jobs report confirms my thesis. With 95.8% of the working population gainfully employed, wages are finally accelerating and higher income provides added fuel for our consumption driven economy. Tax reform will provide additional stimulus and banks stand to gain the most as people finance cars, buy homes, and use their charge cards with confidence. What’s curious about this very linear relationship: Wall Street hasn’t figured it out yet. Banks are still largely unloved by the analyst community even nine years after the financial crisis, but data has become too compelling to ignore. I am already long Wells Fargo (WFC) as a value play off the fake account selloff… Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) for its exceptional leverage to construction in the booming southeast… Bank of America (BAC) due to its recent technical breakout… and now one more, which Forbes ranks as the Best Bank in America.


October 07, 2017

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14

As in Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Hackett promises to cut costs by $14B as he pivots production towards electric vehicles with significantly fewer mechanical components.
#BraveNewWorld

20.8

As in GE shares have fallen 20.8% this year, the worst performance of all 30 stocks in the DJIA and probably why retiring CEO Jeff Immelt left sooner than initially announced.
#MaybeTimeToBuy

189

As in 189 companies mentioned “machine learning” during their 3Q earnings calls, a new high according to Bloomberg.
#TomCruiseMinorityReport

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“We’re definitely seeing that tighter labor markets are causing wages and salaries to gradually go up.”
–Fed Governor Eric Rosengren after September’s strong jobs report
#WagePriceSpiral

“I think what you heard the President say was that Puerto Rico is going to have to figure out a way to solve its debt problem.”
–WH Budget Director Mick Mulvaney backtracking Mr. Trump’s comments about writing down the island’s municipal debt

#WipeItOut

“You had goalies who were basically wearing cardboard.”
–Hockey historian Liam Maguire after four NHL players scored hat tricks in separate games on the same night, something which hasn’t happened in over 100 years.

#FastIce