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Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.
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Great Expectations
Little Biotech Gets Bigger
- Strong clinical data support potential best in class treatment for Celiac disease and Short Bowl Syndrome
- Multiple catalysts in 2021 could drive significant value creation including an investigative Covid indication
- Considerable buying by shareholders and executive signals optimism and additional potential stock gains
Better than Expected – Nine months ago I initiated a position in a promising, but highly experimental drug development company focused on treating two conditions in the gut… short bowl syndrome and Celiac disease. Recent developments demonstrate clinical progress, and additional upside could come from an unexpected third trial involving Covid patients. With insiders buying significantly, and new warrants awarded to management, I think there’s more potential upside to this story than I originally believed. I’m updating my report, and upping my target.
February 27, 2020
Read MoreThe Next Carvana?
Open Road Ahead
- Used car market at $840B is three times larger than the new car market and only 1% of sales happen online
- 42,000 fragmented local dealerships vs just three online platforms creates national foothold opportunity
- Smallest online entrant offers a differentiated product, reconditioning older cars at lower price points
Ripe for Disruption – The $840B used-car market is three times larger than the new car market and equivalent to 4% of US GDP, making it one of the largest retail sectors in the world… and possibly the most fragmented. The largest 100 dealers account for just 9% of the 40M used cars sold every year, while another 44,000 independent dealers handle about a third of transactions and the remaining 50% are person-to-person. Incredibly, fewer than 1% of all sales occur online, compared to 22% e-commerce penetration for retail sales as a whole. I can’t think of any other market for good and services which is so vulnerable to reinvention and digitization as the used car market. Carvana founders recognized this opportunity early on, and their stock has soared 1,800% since the 2017 IPO. By the same token, Carvana still only accounts for half a percent of all used cars sold. I think there’s enormous opportunity in this business, and I have my eye on a third online entrant. The company just came public via a SPAC and it adds value by reconditioning older cars Carvana won’t touch. At a stock price of $8, I see significant upside.
February 27, 2020
Read MoreJust Apple My Friends
Enabling iOS for Employees
- Apple iOS accounts for 44% of operating systems in the US, more than Android (28%) and Windows (27%)
- Millennials will account for 75% of the US workforce by 2025 and overwhelmingly prefer Apple products
- Only one company enables corporate IT departments to integrate, secure and monitor iOS installations
Cult of Mac – My college roommate had a Mac and loved it, though I typed my senior thesis on a university PC because it seemed more professional. Merrill Lynch eventually gave me my own PC, Dreyfus taught me Excel, and ING handed me a Blackberry several years later… effectively completing my Windows indoctrination. This was all very exciting for a wide-eyed twenty-something, but in 2009 I bought an iPhone and marveled over its functionality. Now I own a 27-inch iMac at work, synched to MacBook at home, and I stream movies on my AppleTV when not thumbing my iPhone. I love how the ecosystem works together, and clearly I am not alone. Apple iOS now accounts for 44% of all operating systems in the US, compared to 28% for Android and 27% for Windows. Curiously, corporations still cling to Windows, though that’s changing quickly. Employees who’ve been working from home want to bring their Macs to the workplace, and a number of national surveys reveal corporate America is helping them make the switch. Only one company enables IT departments to integrate, secure and monitor iOS alongside their Windows networks, and I see significant runway for growth.
February 27, 2020
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4
As in 4 of the largest 100 US companies incorporated cybersecurity metrics into calculating executive compensation in 2020.
#ProtectionBonus?
28
As in 28% of Samsung’s semiconductors are made in Austin, TX.
#ReshoringIsReal
950
As in Bitcoin’s market cap has risen to $950B, roughly equivalent to 4% of US GDP.
#QuiteAnExperiment
“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– LinkedIn Co-founder Reed Hoffman
#AmericanIngenuity
“Watson may be emblematic of a broader issue at IBM of taking good science and making it commercially relevant.”
– Bernstein Research Analyst Tony Sacconaghi
#That’sTheWholePoint
“Working from home is not ideal for us, and it is not the new normal. It’s an aberration we are going to correct as quickly as possible.”
– Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon
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