Bullseye explores, celebrates and invests in American Ingenuity, managing a portfolio of 35-50 publicly-traded US equities with significant runway for growth. These are dynamic, US companies propelling the world forward across multiple industries. Frequent focus sectors include Energy, Health and Technology. Every pick shares three defining attributes: great story, compelling data, newsy catalyst.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Reflation Trade

Oil & Economy
  • US oil demand averaged 20Mb/d before Covid but has remained 12-13% lower due to lockdowns
  • Accelerating economic growth should awaken demand and lead to higher production as prices rise
  • Oil stocks are well off their lows but still trade at a significant discount to all-time highs of 2018/9

Leveraging the Rebound – US GDP growth is surging to a 40-year high of 6.5%, and economists tracked by Bloomberg estimate the rate could double by June, before settling in the mid-single digits through next year. It’s wonderful news and explains why commodities like copper, oil and lumber are rising significantly. Curiously, oil stocks have only just begun to re-inflate. I own pipeline operator Energy Transfer (ET), and I’m thinking of buying back my favorite driller, EOG Resources (EOG). Similarly, I want to add an oil field services company to the portfolio… and it’s leveraged to higher oil demand without being exposed to the risk of exploration. The one I have in mind ranks #1 in N. America, and it’s as much about technology as oil. I like that combination, especially now.

May 08, 2021

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Solar Inflection Point?

Taking Suburbia Off the Grid
  • Two million US solar installations to date represent less than 2% of all US households according to SEIA
  • Solar systems for a typical 2,000 sq. ft. home cost $18-20k compared to $25k for panels alone a decade ago
  • Washington’s Green Plan will likely extend the incentives for residential solar installations through 2030

Home Free – Solar system costs have fallen so much that some suppliers now install them for free if homeowners sign long-term service agreements… and that’s just the beginning. Integrating Tesla’s massive battery-pack provides so much storage capacity that even high-demand households can move off the grid, or sell surplus power to neighbors. The Biden Administration and Congressional leadership support extending solar credits and incentives for 7-10 years, providing additional runway for an industry that has already taken flight. Solar stocks were sky-high in February, but have corrected significantly amid the tantrum over rising interest rates. I’ve been eyeing one of the leading installers of fully-integrated residential systems for months, and now I’m ready to buy… 40% off the high with 40% topline growth.

May 08, 2021

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Two Themes One Stock

Top Semi Pick Returns
  • Modern vehicles contain $300 of semiconductors (up 2x in 10 years) but EVs contain up to $1,000 in chips
  • 5G catapults demand for near-field communications chips enabling metadata transfer in nanoseconds
  • One semiconductor manufacturer dominates the market for auto and NFC chips

Think tactically – Last year I sold the world’s #1 semi-conductor supplier to the auto industry after doubling my money, and now I want to buy it back… higher. I could jump in right now, but the stock hovers near its all-time high, and the S&P 500 Index has risen 30% since October without a single 10% pullback. That’s a lot of momentum to chase, so I’m waiting for my moment. Some might think I’m being cute, I think I’m being tactical. I know what I want to buy, and how much I’m willing to spend… one of the world’s top chip makers leveraging key themes at reasonable valuation.

May 08, 2021

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42

As in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has fallen 42% from its February high.
#Oversold?

42

As in 42% of financial institutions say working from home has made their systems less secure.
#HomeServers

42

As in baseball legend and barrier-breaker Jackie Robinson’s #42 is the one number no MLB player is allowed to wear, expect on Jackie Robinson Day (April 15) when every single MLB player dons a #42 jersey.
#AmericanHero

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“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– LinkedIn Co-founder Reed Hoffman
#AmericanIngenuity

“We don’t know how to do it yet, but if you can make one ship net zero you can make them all net zero… provided the economics make sense.”
– Lars Pedersen, Bimco Shipping Alliance
#NoMoreSmokeStack?

“I’m about to cancel all my Zoom meetings.”
– JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon
#SeeYouAtTheOffice