Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Silencing a Silent Killer

New Approach to Heart Disease
  • Cardiovascular disease is the world’s #1 killer, accounting for 31% of health-related deaths in 2015 (W.H.O.)
  • US healthcare providers spend over $300B annually to treat cardiovascular conditions, nearly 2% of GDP
  • One biotechnology company may offer the first non-surgical solution to shrinking oversized heart muscles

I love investing in biotechnology. The sector epitomizes the best of American Ingenuity… people and companies changing the world. It also offers the potential for significant upside. Historically, biotech has been uncorrelated to the broader market and blessedly free from macro-political interference. This year however, biotech stocks have been dogged by the rallying cry of Medicare for All, which has created unusual selling pressure. One such company focuses on holistic and non-surgical approaches to cardiovascular disease, the leading cause of death globally. While the company is not unknown to thoughtful investors, upcoming data on late-stage trials could propel the stock significantly higher from here. I would also add that recent selling creates an opportunistic entry point.

October 18, 2019

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Rx for Better Health

Data-Driven Care
  • Healthcare’s Holy Grail is a secure platform which facilitates free flow of information among providers
  • Electronic Health Records dominate discussion around better patient outcomes at lower cost
  • Private companies focus on data analytics as public entities seek standardized protocols

Imagine – You’re vacationing in Hawaii with the family, walking along Waikiki when you start to feel dizzy. A lifeguard approaches and recognizes signs of a stroke. Ten minutes later you’re in an ambulance, and before you even arrive at Moanalua Medical, ER doctors are ready. Their systems have accessed electronic health records from your GP in Chicago, incorporated real-time data from paramedics, and mapped out an AI-powered treatment protocol after comparing your precise condition to thousands of documented examples. No guess-work, no duplicative tests, no precious moments wasted. This is what professionals call the Holy Grail of Healthcare: Creating a secure, nationwide database of each patient’s medical history, in order to foster preventative solutions and improve emergency care… presumably at lower cost with greater success.

October 18, 2019

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Trade War Casualties

Screening for Value
  • Thirty-one of the 1,000 largest US companies capture at least 20% of their annual revenues in China
  • Trade tensions have caused significant stock price declines for US companies with China exposure
  • A potential truce and/or “partial deal” could lead to significant price appreciation among impacted stocks

Trade tension has wreaked such havoc on the global economy, that last week IMF economists lowered their global growth forecast for the fifth time in two years… something they haven’t done since 2009. In the US, manufacturing output has contracted each of the past two months, following 33 consecutive quarterly expansions, and US companies of all sizes have effectively put capital expenditures on hold. Curiously, recent progress between negotiators has enabled the S&P 500 Index to recapture old highs, though US stocks with high China exposure still struggle. They remain 18% below their own respective all-time highs… and therein lies the opportunity. I think China-focused US stocks are primed for a tactical move higher. I’m already long several, and here are some others worth considering. These are the 31 largest US companies which capture at least 20% of their revenues in China.

October 18, 2019

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58

As in 58% of all grocery deliveries in the US are made by privately held Instacart, according to Edison Trends.
#TimeToIPO?

200

As in China produces 200 gigawatt hours of battery power annually, 30% more than Europe and five times more than the US.
#Who’sGreenerNow?

18,000,000,000

As in the three largest distributors of opioids are negotiating a potential $18B settlement against all past and future claims.
#IWon’tEvenTakeAdvil

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“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– Reed Hoffman, Co-Founder LinkedIn.
#AmericanIngenuity

“Algorithms are going to be a big part of medicine in the future, but we aren’t developing the human-capital pipeline against that goal. We don’t see it reflected in our pre-med requirements, or medical-school curricula.”
– Prof. Ziad Obermeyer, University of California at Berkeley
#TheNewBedsideManner

“Sentiment remains as challenging as anything we have ever seen, and there appears a growing consensus that the exploration-and-production business model won’t work in a $50-55/bbl world.”
– Simmons Energy report cited in the WSJ
#CureForLowPricesIsLowPrices