Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify opportunities most worthy of your time. I analyze data, distill complexity and share insights from a deep network of experts. In the process I read vast amounts of information, and while the journey sometimes presents more questions than answers, I do my best to pluck kernels of truth which reap bushels over time. I love what I do and invite you to join me.

Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Sleep No More

Track Record YTD and Picks Into Yearend
  • The recent 3% selloff ends what had been the least volatile 4 week period since May 2014
  • Probability of a September rate hike has gone from 18% to 48% and back to 18% in 4 weeks
  • 84% of hedge funds tracked by Bloomberg have received redemption notices this year
  • Bullseye winners outnumber losers more than two to one (70% vs 30%)

August was perfect. I rode a Citibike to the office every morning and spent days admiring an exceptionally well-behaved portfolio. Longs worked higher and shorts edged lower. It was all exactly as it’s supposed to be. Then came Labor Day. In the span of 36 hours we learned investors are yanking money from hedge funds at the highest rate since 2009, U.S. economic indicators have taken a noticeable turn lower and no one has a clue about interest rates… especially The Fed! Sleep no more, volatility has returned with a vengeance and we have to weigh thoughtfully what we want to own into yearend.

September 17, 2016

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New Barons of Oil

How Icahn & Team Beat the Regulators
  • Five hedge funds own 38% of the world’s largest LNG export operator
  • The Sabine Pass, Louisiana terminal will be able to process 9% of global LNG demand by 2020
  • Long-term supply contracts link prices of LNG at time of delivery to spot Brent prices
  • LNG was upgraded recently by Standard & Poor’s and CFO Wortley seeks IG rating longer-term

Five powerful hedge funds have figured out how to bypass position limits in oil futures, and they’ll control billions of barrels for years to come. Led by Carl Icahn, several funds have amassed a 38% stake in publicly traded Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG). The company is building the country’s first-ever LNG export project, and it’s hands-down the single largest global project of its kind for the foreseeable future. On the surface it looks like gas, but dig deeper and it’s about oil –more oil than anyone could ever buy in the futures market, and for many more years than contracts exist. If you’re long-term bullish energy, this is the play.

September 17, 2016

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Pets & Protein

#1 Animal Health Pure-Play at 10% Off
  • Americans will spend $62.75B caring for pets this year
  • Total pet industry expenditures double every 12-15 years
  • China and India driving significant new demand for animal health as diets pivot to protein
  • Three companies control more than half the global market for animal related expenditures

My friend Paul is veterinarian. He breeds labs for fun, but golden retrievers are his favorite… they’re good for business. Goldens will eat just about anything if given the chance, and since surgery to remove a swallowed tennis shoe costs about $4,000, the more goldens the better. I asked him if customers ever balk, and he assured me people rarely worry about price when caring for their dogs. It’s one reason why the American Pet Products Association pegs total annual spending on pets at $62.75B… and that’s just in the U.S. Add spending globally, plus investment in herds producing food, and you realize this is a very strong industry.

September 17, 2016

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5.4

As in beleaguered Deutsche Bank will settle claims with the DoJ for $5.4B, a discount of 61% from the original $14B bombshell. NEVER take the first offer.
#Negotiation101

24


As in NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) pops 24% on news Qualcomm may be looking to buy the company. NXPI powers Apple Pay and is #1 in sensors for autos. 
NXPI is also a Bullseye Buy.
#Subscribe

1999

As in I think it’s 1999 all over again. That’s the year CBS and Viacom merged, only to break up 6 years later. Now they want to get back together. Confused? Me too.
#TilDeathDoUsPart

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“This year we sold less than initially planned. We will change our guidance, we just haven’t decided exactly what it will be.”
–CEO Karl-Johan Persson of Swedish retailer H&M as Same-Store-Sales decline and online volumes rise
#WhyBullseyeIsShortREITs


“The merger of Airbus Group and Airbus eliminates redundancies and supports further efficiencies.”
–Tom Enders, CEO Airbus Group
#OBVI



“We want to define the sports car of the future and combine Porsche’s tradition with electric mobility.”

–Porsche CEO Oliver Blume
I miss my 1985 bright red 911 convertible, but it brought out the worst in me.
#TooManyTickets