Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Like OTB But Better

TV, Sports & Gambling
  • Nation’s largest broadcaster will triple cashflow by acquiring 21 FOX regional sports networks for $9.6B
  • Transaction increases audience and reach initially then creates a platform for online betting longer term
  • Recent debt offering to provide deal financing was largest HY issue since 2016 and highly oversubscribed

TV, sports and betting… what’s not to like? The nation’s largest owner/operator of local television stations is buying 21 FOX regional sports networks (RSNs) from Disney for $9.6B, and I think this has the potential to become one of the most transformative entertainment transactions in history. I know that’s quite a statement, but there’s even more to this acquisition than rising market share. We are witnessing the likely convergence of televised sports and online gambling, courtesy of recent legal changes that could simultaneously allow bundling both onto a single platform. Imagine watching a game on your phone and seeing betting odds appear in a pop-up, then double-clicking to make a wager. The system is already in beta testing, and you can be sure it’s part of the appeal here… as are deal economics and earnings accretion. There’s a lot to like.

August 02, 2019

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Make the Itching Stop

New Drug for Hives
  • Hives and related conditions associated with excessive swelling affect 350,000 patients in the US
  • Few treatment options exist and current protocols often involve steroids with considerable side effects
  • One company’s solution to unwanted immunological response could become the new standard of care

Lesson learned. Last winter I traveled to the Bahamas and slept with the windows open, against specific instructions from my hosts. I wanted to enjoy the breeze and hear the waves… what a shame I never heard the bugs. I awoke with 45 bites on left arm, and the itching was like nothing I’ve ever experienced, though in my case it  subsided the the end of the week. For patients who suffer from persistent hives and several related issues, including gastritis of the gut and conjunctivitis in the eyes, the prognosis is far less encouraging. Their hyperactive immune systems respond only occasionally to conventional steroid treatment, often with detrimental side effects. Fortunately, a clinical  stage biotechnology company which IPO’d last summer may have a solution. Its scientists are testing a unique monoclonal antibody which binds with receptors on certain immune cells, effectively shutting down excessive immunological responses so unwanted swelling never occurs in the first place. The company recently reported strong data in its Phase IIa trial for Urticaria (hives), and when I attended the Q&A lunch for analysts last week in New York, the room was packed.

August 02, 2019

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Not Even Close

Is Boeing a Buy?
  • 737 MAX accounts for 80% of Boeing’s narrow-body backlog and over 50% of total production
  • The troubled airliner’s Return to Service (RTS) has been postponed to mid Q4 at the earliest
  • Boeing has accelerated non-MAX production and suspended its stock buyback to offset revenue losses

I love feedback from readers, and one of the questions I’ve been getting most frequently is Where would you buy Boeing? I appreciate the sentiment behind the question, because it gets at one of my favorite and most profitable recurring strategies of buying great companies when they stumble. In this case however, I am not buying. While Boeing is a pillar of American Ingenuity… and therefore a prime Bullseye candidate… there are still far too many unanswered questions, as well as a glaring disconnect between fundamentals and valuation. With shares still hovering $50 above the December low, I think buying here is a recipe for risk. So where exactly would I buy Boeing, and under what circumstances? Fasten your seatbelts, it needs to go significantly lower.

August 02, 2019

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63

As in Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure collectively manage 63% of commercial traffic in the cloud.
#World’sBiggestDuopoly

192

As in Tesla sold 192,000 cars domestically last year, accounting for more than half all EVs sold in the US.
#FordShouldBuyThem

550,000,000,000

As in US mortgage re-financings totaled $550B during 2Q, the highest since late 2017 as rates fall to within half a point of all-time lows.
#AndTheFedIsCuttingAgain

 

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“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– Reed Hoffman, Co-Founder LinkedIn.
#AmericanIngenuity

“This was our biggest June quarter ever, driven by all-time record revenue growth from services, which rose 13%.”
– Tim Cook, Apple CEO during the 3Q earnings call.
#EverythingBySubscription

“AI and blockchain are getting everyone really pumped right now… it’s a sort of new enterprise gold rush in enterprise IT.”
– John Lovelock, VP of Research at Gartner, Inc.
#DigitalBreadcrumbs