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Adam Johnson
Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.
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Our Road Ahead
40 Picks for 3Q19
- Bullseye enters the second half of 2019 up 20% YTD with 40 positions across four defining themes
- Evolving clarity on trade and anticipated rate cuts catalyze tactical near-term opportunities
- Innovation across Technology and Healthcare drive compelling long-term investment trajectories
Barbell Approach – I am increasingly moving the Bullseye portfolio towards a barbell strategy. Half the positions reflect tactical near-term opportunities driven largely by trade resolution and lower rates, while the other half focus on long-term growth within Technology and Health Care. All picks are grounded in my core theme of American Ingenuity… people and companies changing our world… though each end of the barbell has a different timeframe. Tactical trades are likely to be 3-4 month positions, while growthier companies could become long-term holdings. Here’s why I’m approaching the portfolio this way. I think trade clarity and lower rates will probably revive economic growth in the second half of the year, but yield curve inversion ALWAYS precedes recession. As a result, markets may be setting up for a “blow-off” rally now, followed by tougher times ahead. The barbell approach affords tactical flexibility near term, while preserving skin in the game long term. Thirteen positions relate to the Economy & Trade… my single largest exposure lest anyone think I’m getting too negative. Transformative Tech, Healthcare Solutions and Special Situations account for 10, 9 and 8 positions respectively.
July 03, 2019
Read MoreWhat Matters Now
3 Themes for 3Q
- Several macro themes are dominating headlines and moving stocks disproportionally in the current cycle
- Markets want lower rates AND a China deal but the real test comes in the fall pending evidence of success
- Balancing analysis and emotion is the hardest part of managing money, even with excellent stock picks
You’ve heard me say this before and I’ll say it again: How do you make the most amount of money on Wall Street? Find a theme and leverage it. I learned this fundamental tenet from my mentor of many years. It was his favorite question to pose analysts interviewing for a job, and it has since become my mantra. Getting a theme right improves our odds of success, the same way a rising tide lifts all boats… even the leaky ones. In this report, I highlight several themes driving markets right now. None should come as a surprise, since they’re already apparent in the Bullseye portfolio, but reiterating themes each quarter confirms what’s working… as well as what’s not.
July 03, 2019
Read MoreThank You Uncle Sam
Semi-Annual 401(k) Dividend Rebalance
- Dividend reinvestment in pre-tax accounts generates significant outperformance over time
- Second quintile dividend stocks offer the best risk-adjusted returns
- December’s semi-annual rebalancing of Bullseye’s Optimized Dividend Portfolio yields two new stocks
There’s a lot to be said for boring dividend stocks. They bounce around less, they pay you every quarter and they let you sleep at night… they can also make you rich. Buying dividends stocks in your 401(k) retirement account is one of the greatest gifts government has ever invented. The reason is tax arbitrage. Money goes in pre-tax, gains accrue without paying tax (even if sold) and dividends are reinvested with no tax. It’s a triple whammy and it’s there for the taking, courtesy of the IRS. True, you’ll eventually have to pay tax when liquidations begin during retirement, but in the meantime all those gains will have built up pre-tax. Put another way, if you start a 401(k) account in your 20s, it’s as though the government will be giving you a loan on what you would have paid in taxes for the next forty years. Over a 25 year period, you’ll quite possibly double the return of the S&P 500… and that’s based on math I can show you. Triple tax exempt funds produce results quickly and it’s never too late to start, especially with generous allowances for 50-something investors looking to play catch-up. I rebalance Bullseye’s Optimized Dividend Portfolio twice a year, and I urge you to use put the strategy to work in your own 401(k).
July 03, 2019
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1.99
As in the spot price for flash memory chips falls to $1.99, compared to over $9 two years ago.
#TariffsCrushDemand
66
As in Vietnam has approved 66% more large-scale manufacturing projects this year compared to the first half of 2018.
#TheNewChina
142,859
As in machine learning engineers earn an average of $142,589 per year, the highest paying job directly related to AI.
#LowRatesDon’tHelp
“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
Reed Hoffman, Co-Founder LinkedIn.
#AmericanIngenuity
“The latest 737 Max setbacks will cause us to keep the aircraft out of the schedule beyond October 1. That’s very disappointing.”
– Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly.
#ZeroRoomForError
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Bill Guernier, Head of New Mobility at Uber.
#NotJustCars
