Bullseye explores, celebrates and invests in American Ingenuity, managing a portfolio of 35-50 publicly-traded US equities with significant runway for growth. These are dynamic, US companies propelling the world forward across multiple industries. Frequent focus sectors include Energy, Health and Technology. Every pick shares three defining attributes: great story, compelling data, newsy catalyst.
Bullseye Brief Members receive the following:
  1. Bullseye Brief - Actionable ideas every two weeks
  2. Bullseye View - What’s happening in key markets
  3. Week Ahead Preview - Sunday night email on alternating weeks
  4. Podcast - Meet the people driving American Ingenuity (2x/month)
  5. Access - Call or email Adam directly with questions or comments

Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Never Surrender

Understanding the Selloff
  • The US stock market’s 36% plunge over 23 days marks its fastest-ever decline exceeding 30%
  • Nearly every S&P 500 component has broken its 200-day moving avg and 75% have fallen to 52-week lows
  • Valuation now implies imminent recession despite unprecedented fiscal stimulus and monetary easing

Once in a Generation – We are living through the most violent selloff in US stock market history, and my own stress level has risen to levels not felt since 2008. The financial crisis was bad, but we knew what we were dealing with… excessive housing leverage which brought banking to its knees. The coronavirus, by contrast is invisible. We can’t see it, feel it or even understand it… and fear of the unknown is far more frightening. My goal is to unmask this fear, to consider how markets have responded during other crises and to chart a path forward. I sold ten stocks in January and February, raising cash to about 30%, but as my old boss commented years ago during another brutal rout, you never sell enough. Now I have to dig myself out of a hole, which I will do. The key is to stay level-headed, flexible and optimistic about identifying stocks with the most upside post-corona. We must never surrender.

March 26, 2020

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Your Questions

My Responses
  • Thank you for your trust as we navigate the evolving landscape and plot our pathway to recovery
  • Your many emailed notes and thoughtful questions demonstrate our collective resilience and resolve
  • Posing questions and collaborating on solutions offers a vital and proactive way to strengthen our process

One Plus One Equals Three – I am a firm believer that two smart people working together often reach a better, faster decision than if each had been working alone. Partners help us see things we might not have seen on our own, and ultimately the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. With this in mind, I am digging into the many questions and comments I’ve received since the selloff began, responding in public so we can all benefit. Your questions invariably make me sharper, primarily because they force me to re-examine my assumptions and crystalize a viewpoint. For this I am extremely grateful. I also realize that many of the inquiries I receive are relevant to other readers as well. If one person has asked a question, chances are others have been wondering the same thing too. So here we go… thanks, and keep them coming.

March 26, 2020

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My Portfolio Up Close

One Paragraph per Pick
  • American Ingenuity remains my north star as markets emerge from the most violent selloff in history
  • Bullseye’s 25 positions span three key themes: Health Solutions, Transformative Tech, Growth Meets Value
  • Picks offer significant potential for price appreciation with an average potential upside exceeding 250%

Catalyst-Driven Opportunities – I have spent significant time thinking about how to maximize potential upside as markets begin to normalize. I believe that specific, catalyst-driven opportunities represent the greatest probability for price appreciation, rather than market-oriented names which tend to trade with the S&P 500 Index. As a result, I have sold some laggards and re-focused the portfolio around three specific themes: Health Solutions, Transformative Technologies, and Growth Meets Value. Health Solutions accounts for 13 of the 25 stocks I own, and each of these companies offers specific reasons to own shares in the next several quarters. Transformative Technologies includes five companies driving innovation across industries over the next several years. Growth Meets Value includes seven best-in-breed companies which should accelerate past peers as markets stabilize post-corona. I will add more picks to the portfolio in time, but these are the 25 companies where I’m placing my bets as Q2 begins.

March 26, 2020

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As in New York City now ranks #1 in the world for most number of corona cases.
#WeWillGetThroughThis

300

As in meal-kit provider Blue Apron is hiring 300 workers at its NJ site to fulfill the surge in orders as people self-quarantine and cook at home.
#We’reAllAdapting

800,000,000

As in Verizon reports an average of 800M daily wireless calls, twice the volume of Mother’s Day and other holidays when volume typically surges.
#PeopleNeedPeople

 

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“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– Reed Hoffman, Co-Founder LinkedIn.
#AmericanIngenuity

“At the heart of our Company, there has always been a spirit of togetherness that inspires our creativity, our confidence and most importantly our support for one another.”
– Ralph Lauren announcing the company will manufacture protective masks rather than clothing at several facilities.
#AmericanIngenuity

“We need to mathematically guarantee that health data remains anonymous, or else providers won’t give it… and unless researchers get real-world data, they’re not going to be able to solve problems.”
– Tom Siebel, founder and CEO of C3.ai on using artificial intelligence to predict corona hotspots.
#AmericanIngenuity