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Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.
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Power Me Up
- Electric vehicles account for 2% of US auto sales but could rise to 10% by 2025 (Platt’s Analytics)
- US has just 41k EV charging stations according to DoE data, compared to 168k gasoline stations
- Largest provider of EV charging stations has 70% market share in the US and 20% in Europe
Go Big… Go EV – Ford CEO Jim Farley sent shockwaves across the auto industry last month with his $30B commitment to provide an electric version of every vehicle in the lineup by 2026. Electric vehicles may only represent 2% of current auto sales, but that percentage is clearly on the rise. Platt’s Analytics forecasts that EV share will grow to 10% by 2025, and I’ve seen multiple forecasts which predict 20-25%, especially in China and Europe. Whatever the exact figure, electric vehicles represent a massive change to the status quo, and there will be MANY companies to buy as this evolving ecosystem achieves scale. I think one of the most obvious and underserved opportunities is in chargers and charging stations that enable EVs to function. One company dominates, with 70% market share of all Level 2 chargers. It also operates the largest network of independent chargers across the country, providing consumers the first integrated platform for powering up and hitting the road.
June 17, 2021Read More
First Mover Advantage
- Total crypto market value across the 50 largest coins now exceeds $1.9T or nearly 10% of US GDP
- Multiple retailers including Home Deport and Starbucks have joined Tesla in accepting bitcoin for payment
- Cryptocurrency’s largest management and trading platform commands 12% share and $50B in market cap
Brave New World – I have avoided crypto up to this point, arguing that investors have focused too much on price over purpose. That may be changing. Blockchain has clearly proven itself as a logistics tool which “lowers the cost of transacting,” as recent Bullseye podcast guest Chris Plance opined. I am also intrigued that Home Depot and Starbucks have joined Tesla in accepting bitcoin for payment. SNL jokes with Elon Musk aside, the crypto ecosystem is coming of age and I can no longer stand on the sidelines. While I have yet to actually buy bitcoin, I do like owning the picks and shovels behind bitcoin, notably the largest and most comprehensive cryptocurrency platform in the world. It’s already profitable, and I believe its proprietary technology will become the industry standard. My first foray into crypto…
June 17, 2021Read More
More Power Please
Semi Sector’s Up-cycle
- Spending on semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to rise 30-35% for 2021-22 vs. 2019
- Global semiconductor shortage reflects near-term Covid bottlenecks and long-term undersupply
- Leading equipment maker essential to entire sector has twice guided higher and could raise again
Silicon Valley Gold – Covid lockdowns have wreaked havoc on semiconductor supply chains, especially since the majority of foundries are in Asia and were shuttered for months. Companies at every point along the supply and demand curve are scrambling to catch up, which is why brand new SUVs sit idle at the dealer… they lack chips that operate everything from fuel injection to power windows. Eventually the world will normalize, but two other important trends highlight why chip-making demand could rise even more: Reshoring of US production amid concerns about China, and structural increases in demand due to 5G, automation, autonomy and rising computer power more generally. One company dominates a specialized aspect of semiconductor production, and without it, semiconductors wouldn’t exist. You’ve probably never heard of this company, but all six analysts rate it a buy, and in May all eight board members bought stock. I want to own it in the $30s… at $40 it’s close.
June 17, 2021Read More
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