Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Texas Strong

Best E&P Post-Harvey
  • Hurricane Harvey temporarily idled one third of U.S. refining capacity though on-site damage was minimal
  • Hardest hit Eagle Ford shale output fell 57% initially and is restarting as unpaved access roads dry out
  • Gasoline futures rose 38% on reported outages but retreated to pre-Harvey prices within 6 days
  • Trading relationship between the S&P 500 E&P Index and crude offers tactical value

Texans embody the best of America: Get the job done and take care of people along the way. As a young oil trader visiting Houston for the first time, I got food poisoning and literally passed out in a hotel lobby, only to wake up as firemen leaned over me next to a very concerned general manager. They carried me to a suite (I’d booked the cheapest room) and sent a doctor immediately… no charge. On a trip to Dallas I dropped off my Hertz rental car and dashed to make a courtesy bus, but the desk attendant told me he’d take me to the terminal himself since I was late… THAT’S TEXAS. Within just six days of Hurricane Harvey’s assault on America’s fourth largest city, home to a third of the country’s petroleum refining capacity, Houston’s many oil businesses were already beginning to resume operations. Neighborhoods were underwater and thousands still in shelters, but can-do people can accomplish the impossible. If I ever left New York City, Texas is a place I’d proudly call home. It’s also the epicenter of energy and headquarters to one of my favorite exploration and production companies, which I want to own post-Harvey.

September 09, 2017

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Making Homes Smarter

IoT in a Box
  • New homes have up to 50 internet connected devices compared to fewer than 5 ten years ago
  • Barclays estimates the connected home market could increase ten-fold to $300B by 2020
  • Suites of connected products within a home create significant demand for powerful NextGen modems
  • Cable providers have already initiated significant upgrade/CapEx cycles to meet expected demand

Over Labor Day I revisited a scenic corner of Connecticut, where some years ago I converted an old firehouse into a weekend home. The place had been slated for demolition and only cost me a dollar, though I spent a small fortune dismantling its chestnut beams and bringing the whole thing back to life a few miles away. I took pride restoring every inch, but as a local broker reminded me last weekend, today’s buyers want more than authenticity. They want connectivity. Young turks arriving in BMWs on Friday night expect to make everything just so from iPhones on their way into town. From thermostats and curtains to dimmers and music, nearly every corner of the newer connected homes can be found on the grid. Wireless printers reorder ink themselves, and refrigerators report malfunctions directly to manufacturers. Forget the snowplow, sensors in the driveway activate coils which melt away ice. Okay my barn was great, but not like this. It’s the Internet of Things on steroids and while exciting, it’s creating a massive traffic jam at the electronic gateway of your home… unless you have the right piece of equipment.

September 09, 2017

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Risky Business?

Hurricane Insurers
  • Hurricane Harvey losses estimated at $70B by Kinetic Analysis Corp with two-thirds covered by insurance
  • Hurricane Irma’s imminent arrival along the Florida coast could inflict additional damages of $125B
  • Risk models maintained by Lloyd’s imply insurance industry capital impaired only if losses exceed $100B
  • Total losses of $149B from three hurricanes in 2005 define what is considered a once in 250 year scenario

Insurance is a fascinating business. Even when hurricanes strike, it’s still more about investment returns over time than risk mitigation in a given year. Not sure what I mean? Insurers price policies such that premiums collected generally exceed costs to run the business plus expected claims paid out, and this extra amount goes into an investment pool. Over time, that pool grows and returns compound. The longer an insurer has been in business, the more money in the pool. No insurance company wants to pay out billions in claims, but the big guys can afford it. Their pools of capital have been compounding for a long, long time, and since much of the money is held in high quality assets like real estate and investment grade bonds, insurers can invariably borrow against holdings to get through a pinch. It’s how they bounced back after Katrina in 2005 and Sandy in 2012. As for this year, the market has already placed its bet.

September 09, 2017

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4

As in all 4 female finalists at the U.S. Open are American… a first for a Grand Slam tournament since 1985.
#StarAndStripes

20

As in 20% of the Florida citrus crop appears at risk due to Irma’s projected path across south central portion of the state.
#FoodPrices

143

As in 143 million people were impacted by the data breach at credit agency Equifax, making this one of the largest cyber attacks in history.
#SocialINsecurity

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“When Bill Ford personally goes out and picks people, they seem to be the right people.”
–UAW Boss Jimmy Settles in support of Ford Motor’s new CEO Jim Hackett
#AmericanJobs

“We’re preparing for the potential deployment of mobile financial centers and ATMs based on the areas most impacted.”
–Wells Fargo spokesman, Lawrence Grayson on sending fleets of ATM trucks to Florida and Texas

#DeepBreath

“We think the most important applications of 3D sensing on the new iPhone will be using facial recognition to replace fingerprint recognition and better user experience for selfies.”
–Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Juo of KGI Securities ahead of Tuesday’s iPhone 8 launch 

#MirrorMirror…