Bullseye explores, celebrates and invests in American Ingenuity, managing a portfolio of 35-50 publicly-traded US equities with significant runway for growth. These are dynamic, US companies propelling the world forward across multiple industries. Frequent focus sectors include Energy, Health and Technology. Every pick shares three defining attributes: great story, compelling data, newsy catalyst.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.

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Gift That Keeps Giving?

Buying Back an Old Favorite

  • Recession angst and rate-hike uncertainty have driven materials stocks to multi-year valuation lows
  • Auto and aerospace manufacturers increasingly require lighter, stronger composites for energy efficiency
  • Top producer of specialized aluminum alloys offers attractive risk/reward despite near-term challenges

Deja Vu – Exactly two years ago today I bought the world’s #1 specialty aluminum alloys producer for $19, selling it at $37 just nine months later. It’s $19 once again, and I’m buying it back. While the stock is down on lowered guidance near-term, management sees a return to double-digit growth by early next year, and record low valuation is too compelling to ignore. I would add that its unique and patent-protected approach to producing stronger and lighter alloys make it a favorite supplier to aerospace, EV makers and LEEDS-certified builders. These are dynamic end-markets with long growth trajectories ahead. If you believe as I do, that inflation will decline in coming quarters, resulting in an end to rate hikes and a new bull market, this is an attractive asset to buy now. A gift that could keep giving.

September 23, 2022

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Part Computer… Part Car

EV Supplier Enters Buy Zone

  • Electric/Auto. vehicles contain 3-4x more copper, semiconductors and wiring than gasoline powered cars
  • Global EV sales totaled 6.6M in 2021, approximately 8% of all new cars sold according to the IEA
  • EVs still represent just 1% of all vehicles currently in use, suggesting significant runway for growth

Computers on Wheels – Cars are becoming incredibly complex, with basic systems like AC and windshield wipers requiring multiple electronic interfaces simply to function. According to the US International Trade Commission, conventional gasoline-powered vehicles contain dozens of semiconductors totaling $330 on average, while hybrid electric vehicles can contain a staggering 3,500 semiconductors worth well over $1,000. This is one of the reasons I added NXP Semiconductors to the portfolio several months ago, and it’s why I am adding a related company today…. the world’s leading wiring harness manufacturer for automobiles. Given the considerable power demands of today’s increasingly “smart” vehicles, wiring architecture is now essential to mobility and I want to participate.

September 23, 2022

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When Markets Reopen

Bet on the Best Bankers

  • Wall Street has not priced an IPO in over four months amid uncertainty over interest rates
  • Security issuance all types has fallen significantly this year creating a record backlog for bankers
  • Fed Funds futures suggest an end to rate hikes in Q1, potentially catalyzing pent up deal flow

Wall Street is a ghost town. Bankers haven’t priced an IPO in four months, the longest dry spell since 2008. Similarly, high yield bond issuance has fallen 77% YoY, and M&A deal activity has dropped 21%. Uncertainty over the magnitude of higher interest rates is wreaking havoc on Wall Street’s ability to price transactions, so rather than getting stuck with potentially unattractive economics, deal-making CFOs are sitting on the sidelines. Like all of us, they await clarity. Fortunately, some indicators suggest inflation has peaked, and Fed Funds futures suggest the Fed will be done raising rates by March. If true, then pent up demand for capital could be a boon to the investment bankers who collect hefty fees brining deals to market. I’m eyeing one of the most respected pure-play advisory investment banks down nearly 50%, and trading at a considerable discount to historic valuation. When markets finally turn, this could be one of the early advancers.

September 23, 2022

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