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Adam Johnson
Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.
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Computerizing the Kitchen
Dominance, Growth and Scale
- US restaurants generate $1T of sales annually, more than the Defense budget and equal to 4% of GDP.
- More than 7% of the US labor force is employed in the dining-out restaurant industry (12M people).
- Nearly three-quarters of US restaurant have little or no automated order-entry/food management system.
Ordering – My first W-2 job came at age 15 in a very fancy French restaurant, where during my first week I managed to spill water all over a couple celebrating their tenth anniversary. It was awful, but that summer taught me so much… from kindness, to teamwork to focus. Restaurants are complicated businesses with dozens of moving parts, but one software company is transforming how they operate. Thanks to a handheld system now used by over 100k restaurants in the US, Q2 will mark the company’s first-ever quarterly profit. Its stock looks poised to break out from a two-year base, and I think now is the time to buy. If I ever go into the restaurant business, I’ll use this platform myself. In the meantime, I’m happy to own the stock.
March 15, 2024
Read MoreRevolutionizing Supply Chains
Hands-On Goes Hands-Off
- The market for contract logistics is estimated at $450B annually and expected to rise 45% by 2027
- Only one-third of logistics services are outsourced despite generating operating leverage for customers
- Rising e-commerce volumes and increasingly asset-light business models favor logistics outsourcing
Sweet Spot – My mentor of many years asked the same question to every person he interviewed: How do you make the most amount of money on Wall Street? The answer he wanted to hear, and the one that got the job, was: Find a theme and leverage it. Three mega-themes are converging right now, and one particular industry stands to benefit the most. The themes are Automation, e-Commerce and Outsourcing. The industry is contract logistics, which provides all the behind-the-scenes shipping, stocking, restocking and ordering for companies that would rather focus on making stuff than managing stuff. This is a symbiotic relationship. Companies free-up capital and resources by shedding assets and outsourcing, which drives operating leverage and higher ROE. GXO introduces efficiency by investing in robotics and real estate, spreading those costs over the entire customer base in exchange for long-term service agreements that generate their own ROE. With e-commerce at 15% of retail sales and rising half a percent per year, according to the St. Louis Fed, automated and outsourced logistics will become increasingly relevant to profitable growth. That’s why I’m buying the world’s #1 contract logistics provider. Find a theme and leverage it.
March 15, 2024
Read MoreAI on Wall Steet
Automated Trading
- NYSE estimate that at least two-thirds of daily trading volume is automated and/or machine-related
- AI-enabled trading platforms turbocharge activity by gaming outcomes in realtime and trading accordingly
- Largest automated US trading platform for fixed income (20% market share) presents tactical opportunity
Ghost in the Machine – I learned to trade the old-fashioned way, explaining to a floor broker what I wanted to do and waiting 3-4 minutes for a call-back with execution details… after which I’d write a manual ticket in triplicate and send a copy to Ops for processing. Not anymore. Now everything is automated and instantaneous. AI-enabled trading platforms game out all the possibilities in milliseconds and choose the best plan of action. I simply watch as the autopilot takes over. One company operates the best “autopilot” in the business and I’m a buyer. Curiously, shares fell 25% after Q4 earnings beat estimates because management sounded cautious about trading volumes amid interest rate volatility. They won’t make that mistake again, and I say buy it now.
March 15, 2024
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