Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Where I’d Buy Apple

Not There Yet

  • Management cuts 1Q revenue guidance by 10% on slowing China sales and the stock drops 10%
  • Apple shares have fallen 40% from the high and could fall another 15-20% based on previous downturns
  • CEO Cook needs to articulate a strategy and rethink his policy of high-end pricing in emerging markets

One of my early mentors returned 20% annually for several decades by trading the same 100 stocks over and over. Sometimes he’d go long, others times he’d go short. Sometimes he’d buy the stock, other times he’d buy the debt. The point is, he knew these companies intimately, and he had specific reasons for initiating tactical positions. His flexible approach is particularly appropriate amid the current volatility. Several subscribers have asked me whether I would reestablish the Apple position I sold in September at a 139% gain. Shares have fallen near $90 from the high… so the question is fair… but I think Apple can fall farther. Like my mentor, I’m picking my spots. I would like to see a specific valuation which coincides with previous lows, a certain point on the chart and ideally some clarity about the business. If these conditions align, then yes, I’ll buy back my Apple.


January 11, 2019

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The Need for Speed

5G Enabler Back in Focus

  • Companies presenting at CES 2019 are showcasing how 5G networks transform communication
  • Global telecom providers have begun rolling out 5G service across the US, Europe and Asia
  • Leading 5G innovators down significantly since October during are finally attracting buyers

The fourth quarter selloff has brought a number of former Bullseye holdings back into the buy zone, especially my favorite high-end mobile chip maker. This year global telecommunications companies are finally rolling out 5G mobile services, transforming how people interact by dramatically expanding the Internet of Things (IoT). This is due largely to 5G’s higher operating frequency, which enables staggering amounts of data to travel up to 100 times after than existing 4G and LTE networks. Sensors embedded in our clothing will be able transmit health information to our doctors. Increasingly we will witness cars swerving around obstacles and staying in their lanes automatically. Full length movies will reach our iPhones in split seconds and play without delay. One company holds more 5G patents than any other, and with its stock down 30% since October, it’s nearing the price range at which I’ll re-establish a position.


January 11, 2019

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I Like Trucks

#1 Intermodal Operator

  • Rising GDP growth and tight labor markets could extend the business cycle well beyond expectations
  • Soaring e-commerce volumes require solutions for bulky items like furniture not delivered by FedEx/UPS
  • Trucking companies are generating record profits and 2019 forecasts imply additional growth of 15-20%

As a five-year old, I apparently told my pediatrician I wanted to be either a surgeon or a dump truck driver when I grew up. The episode is one of those family favorites which gets retold every few years over holiday dinners, and while my career took a decidedly different path, the fascination with trucking is still curiously relevant. Shipping is very profitable at the moment, and I’m a buyer. Rates are up and fuel costs are down, while surging e-commerce volume creates new sources of demand. Against this backdrop, trucking stocks should be riding high. Instead they’re on the skids, having fallen 40% as the gloom crew tries to convince us recession is nigh. I disagree, and I sense the market has eased off the brakes. My take: This is when you buy a best-in-breed trucking operator.


January 11, 2019

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18

As in Macy’s stock price suffers its worst ever one-day decline of 18% after lowering same-store-sales guidance to 2.0% from 2.3%.
#ZeroRoomForError

449

As in Apple is offering its new iPhone XR for $449… well below list price… if you trade in your old one.
#OopsTheyMadeTooMany

224,900

As in Venezuela’s inflation rate hits 224,900% as President Maduro is sworn in for another term following an election few see as legitimate.
#EpicFail

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“You should anticipate that we’re going to be patient and watching… waiting and seeing.”
–Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addressing the Economic Club of Washington.

#HeCaved

“We believe our proposal to inject $5B will provide substantially more value than a liquidation.”
–Sears Chairman Eddie Lampert insisting he can still save his perennially teetering retailer.
#ThrowingGoodMoneyAfterBad

“Our industry is witnessing a historic transformation in consumer behavior, and it’s important to provide relevant experiences.”
–Calvin Klein CEO Steve Shiffman on the decision to close the Madison Avenue flagship store as buyers go online.
#REITsAreATickingTimeBomb