Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
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Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Women’s Health

Three Ways to Win
  • Several million women suffer from reproductive-related conditions for which there are no clear solutions
  • Big parma and independent biotechs are racing to develop new classes of drugs to address unmet needs
  • A Swiss-based drug developer has three treatments in advanced trials which could win approval 2019/20

Recent volatility has brought a number of promising high growth companies back to earth. One in particular is a Swiss-based biotechnology company which I initiated at $8 ten months ago. It has the potential to change the lives of women around the world, and I am excited for investors who missed the initial run-up to participate now. After a brief acceleration to $20 in June following news of strong trial data for one of its three drug candidates, shares have retreated to $12 amid broad-based selling pressure. This provides an excellent opportunity for investors with an 18-24 month horizon to buy a company which could more than double from its current price. All three drug candidates are in advanced Phase II and III trials, with multiple final data readouts expected in 2019. Any one of these drugs could prove a game changer for the millions of women around the world suffering from uterine fibroids, excessive bleeding, and complications associated with IVF and/or pre-term labor. Again, I am reaffirming my enthusiasm for this current position because of the compelling risk/reward profile… a combination of strong data, exceptional pipeline and attractive price point.

November 30, 2018

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All Buys & No Sells

#1 Rated US Refiner
  • US oil futures have fallen 35% since reaching 4-year highs in October
  • Price discounts vs WTI for the mid-continent oil have widened to record lows on soaring production
  • Refiners benefit significantly on the spread between cheap crude oil and “stickier” prices at the pump

I am an optimist by nature, tempered by experience… I may have been born at night, but not last night. One of my favorite energy names has gotten absolutely pummeled in the selloff and I’m inclined to buy, except that 19 of 19 analysts also say buy… which I’ve never seen before. The optimist in me thinks this is fantastic, and I should load the boat. The realist recognizes a potential echo chamber of group think, and I should proceed with caution. In fact, I think both perspectives are fair. The company has just completed a massive acquisition, making it the country’s largest independent refiner. It also owns thousands of retail stations, and a massive network of pipelines. In other words, there’s tremendous value but it’s complicated. Investors aren’t big on complexity right now, and oil is down so the stock is down. These are fair points, but value is value and so is cash flow. When high quality companies get dumped by the market, you have to buy. I’m with the analysts. I don’t think we all can be wrong.

November 30, 2018

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Finally, Maybe, Yes

Tech’s Cheapest Leader
  • Technology companies with significant sales to China have been pummeled by trade uncertainty
  • Valuations have fallen to multi-year lows as investors and analysts run for cover
  • Potential thawing between US and China could drive strong upward revisions to earnings estimates

Tariff related selling has hit semiconductor stocks especially hard. Many derive a majority of their revenue from China, and nervous investors have hit the sell button in unison, rather than await clarity or solutions. Fortunately, a breakthrough may be taking shape as Mssrs. Trump and Xi meet one another at the G-20. Chinese manufacturers have few alternative sources for microprocessors manufactured by American producers were they to be shut out completely, and delegations from both sides have been working to identify an offramp which allows each to claim victory… and presumably enable commerce to resume. I think this is why insiders at the one leading manufacturer recently purchased a total of 395,000 shares… more than all insider sales at their company from the previous twelve months combined. That’s quite a statement, and I agree it’s time to buy. Negative sentiment around trade and cyclicality have swung the pendulum too far.

November 30, 2018

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0.9

As in US retail inventories rise 0.9%, the biggest monthly gain since 2016 on potential record holiday spending fueled by tax cuts.
#ReadySetBuy

31

As in filling a job vacancy takes employers 31 days on average, a new all-time high.
#TightLaborMarket

77.2

As in the US trade deficit widens to a record $77.2B, reflecting a surge in imports before tariffs take effect.
#SnoozeYouLose

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“Charlotte is a top-10 destination city that will enable us to recruit and retain the world-class talent we need.”
–Honeywell spokesperson on the company’s decision to relocate its headquarters from New Jersey to North Carolina.

#TaxArbitrage

“Interest rates remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy… that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.”
–Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subtle suggestion on 11/28 that he may NOT raise rates four times through 2019.
#DowRallied600Pts

“It’s a product that reaches people who are looking for balance in their lives… that combination of active and social.”
–Michelob Ultra VP of Marketing Azania Andrews on the company’s relaunch of its low-cal, big-flavor beer.
#Seriously?