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Adam Johnson
Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.
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Patience is a Virtue
Energy Pick in the Buy Zone
- Oil typically bottoms near $50 and tops around $75 based on drilling economics and supply/demand
- Energy stocks echo underlying price changes though with greater volatility given earnings leverage
- The nation’s first LNG exporter enters my Buy Zone on macro-related commodity weakness and I’m buying
One the energy sector’s most pioneering companies in decades has become one of the stock market’s most reliable trading vehicles of 2019… eleven times in the past year it has rallied 12-15% off tradable lows in just a matter of days. Several years ago I bought this stock as a ground-breaking play on US energy exports, and eventually booked my sale as a long-term capital game. Now I’m returning as a tactical investor, looking specifically to buy weakness related to the overall macro environment. I initially published this report in June, alerting you that I would become an opportunistic buyer, and now it’s in range. Fundamentally, management is delivering across all operational metrics. With global markets becoming increasingly jittery about trade, recession and rates, I am happy to add this exceptional company to the portfolio.
September 06, 2019
Read MoreBetter Mousetrap?
New Approach to Cancer
- 38% of Americans are diagnosed with cancer at some point during their lives (NIH data)
- Cancer treatments cost the US healthcare system a total of $147B in 2017 or nearly 5% of GDP
- Stimulating the body’s immune system to fight cancer could reduce expenditures and improve outcomes
What if our own immune system were actually the world’s best defense against cancer… better than chemo, radiation or even the surgeon’s scalpel? It’s a provocative question, and it’s inspiring an entirely new field of medicine called immuno-oncology. The premise is to supercharge the body’s innate disease fighting cells rather than relaying on external medicines, and while still in developmental stages, the potential for progress is very exciting. First scientists use 3-D computer imaging to pinpoint contact points between immune cells and tumors. Next they identify structures tumors use to mask themselves from detection. Ultimately they re-engineer harvested immune cells to become more effective and put them back into the body, unleashing an unstoppable assault. A handful of companies are leading this charge, and one in particular has caught my attention. It trades under $3, and I’m inclined to buy it as a long-term call option on the road to beating cancer.
September 06, 2019
Read MoreYour Questions Answered
My Take on What’s Happening
- The TINA trade of 2012 re-emerges as Europe struggles and the US soldiers on… There is No Alternative
- Inverted yield curves always precede recession but not for a year and stocks rally in the meantime
- Tariffs not rates will be the driving issue for markets as investors focus on positioning into yearend
Fresh perspective is the best part of taking time off… not to mention friends/family, food and fun. I return from hiking the Alps with renewed excitement to uncover transformative companies for our Bullseye portfolio, and I’ve been thinking a lot about the many emailed questions I’ve received from subscribers over the past several weeks. Notably, I sense palpable concern over what’s happening in the global economy, but comments sound far more pragmatic than the outright despair which defined last December’s selloff. Back then everyone was certain recession was at hand and the rally was dead. At this point, investors seem far more attuned to the many shades of grey creating opportunity on both sides of the ledger… long and short. What follows is my attempt to sort it all out and chart a path forward. I start with portfolio management, then address macro issues. Thanks for the feedback that made this note possible.
September 06, 2019
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3.2
As in US wages rise 3.2% in August, the 13th consecutive month of gains above 3%.
#AndTheFedWantsToCut?
50
As in all 50 states report employment gains for the first seven months of the year, even high tax states like California, New York and New Jersey where net migration has fallen.
#StrongLaborMarket
197
As in the Citi Economic Surprise Index turned positive on Friday for the first time in 197 days.
#EveryoneHasBeenWayTooNegative
“My ideal investing is stuff that looks a little crazy now and in 3-5 years is obvious.”
– Reed Hoffman, Co-Founder LinkedIn.
#AmericanIngenuity
“The current tech-like valuation of Beyond Meat ignores consumer efficiency and barriers to entry that are inherently lower in packaged food.”
– Davidson analyst Brian Holland becoming the first Wall Street analyst to call BYND a short.
#ThankYou
“We will use every investigative tool at our disposal… even the largest social media platform in the world must follow the law and respect consumers.”
– NY Attorney General Letitia James on her anti-trust investigation of Facebook
#YepThey’reBigAndYou’reGrandstanding
