Bullseye Brief presents three thematic, actionable investment ideas every other week. My goal is to help identify only those opportunities most worthy of your time… by analyzing data, distilling complexity and sharing insights from a deep network of experts. I love what I do and invite you to join me.
Bullseye Brief Members and Subscribers receive the following:
  1. Bullseye Brief Twice a Month: 3 actionable ideas every 2 weeks
  2. Bullseye View: What’s happening in key markets
  3. Week Ahead Preview: Sunday night email on alternating weeks
  4. Podcast: Thoughtful conversations about money and life bi-monthly
  5. Access: Call or email Adam directly, anytime, with questions or comments

Adam Johnson

Adam Johnson anchored several business programs at Bloomberg Television over five years, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and Nobel laureates. His daily video investment blog, Insight and Action was sponsored by a major U.S. lender. Previously he managed global risk assets for ING Furman Selz and Louis Dreyfus, trading oil futures, listed equities and equity options. Adam began his career at Merrill Lynch with a degree in economics at Princeton.


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Report Card

1Q Performance
  • Bullseye picks return 2.47% during the first quarter of 2018 (current plus closed positions)
  • Portfolio outperforms S&P 500 Index for 7th consecutive quarter and cumulatively since inception
  • My 51 current positions have returned 19% over a holding period of 32 weeks

We did it Teammates, thank you! Bullseye returned 2.47% during the first quarter of 2018… admittedly with some sleepless nights along the way. Volatility spiked to a three year high, and the S&P 500 Index posted its first negative return in nine quarters. Challenging environment but that’s okay. I am a stock picker and this is a stock pickers market. Our Two Es of Earnings and Employment continue to provide a powerful backdrop for equity returns, and now the not-so subtleties of trade, taxes and geo-politics are reasserting their differentiating impact across sectors and specific names. Rising rates and an end to global central bank coordination are also forcing companies to allocate capital more strategically. Again, these are positive developments. Change with a capital “C” steepens the grade between winners and losers. It also brightens the spotlight on stock picking and active management, which is exactly my job. In this issue I share the lessons of Q1, noting what worked and what didn’t. I then pivot to a thematic discussion of the current portfolio, followed by a detailed analysis of every position. Most importantly, thank you for your readership and support.

April 06, 2018

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In & Out

Portfolio Changes During 1Q
  • Bullseye retires 11 positions in the first quarter with an average capital gain of 35.29% over 36 weeks
  • Fifteen new picks enter the portfolio during 1Q18 and generate an average return of 6.97%
  • Technology, Economic Growth and Special Situations account for 90% of current positions

I look for three things in every stock I buy: Great Fundamental Story… Compelling Data… Newsy Hook. This is my unique process, forged over time through equal parts success and failure. Looking at the world this way helps me align macro and micro, since individual companies which leverage secular themes tend to rise further than those operating in a vacuum. Several key themes drive the current portfolio: Technology, Economic Growth, and Special Situations. This approach casts a wide net, so I am long banks, healthcare, technology and a handful of very provocative story stocks. As a result, the Bullseye portfolio is well diversified and relatively stable, which has the added benefit of enabling me to sleep at night. Net movement in and out of the portfolio this quarter has been tilted slightly to the positive, reflecting February’s correction, as several names gave ground on their way to nearly hitting targets. Consequently, I begin the second quarter with 51 positions, rather than the usual 45. I look forward to a combination of market volatility (which creates opportunity) and economic growth (which drives appreciation).

April 06, 2018

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Bullseye Road Ahead

51 Picks for 2Q18
  • Bullseye holds a record 51 stocks as the second quarter begins and all but two are long
  • Portfolio reflects conviction in global economic expansion and transformative solutions across sectors
  • Current positions have embedded gains of 19% and offer additional potential upside of 56% on average

Bullseye is well-positioned to capitalize on the synchronized global growth lifting all 35 economies of the OECD for the first time in twelve years. Nearly one quarter of the portfolio expresses economic expansion as a broad theme, and about half the picks reflect company specific growth opportunities across sectors. While recent volatility has created a pause in the sixth longest S&P 500 Index rally on record (442 days above the 200-day moving average), I firmly believe this action is temporary. It reflects a period of adjustment as investors reprice global assets to allow for higher interest rates. Trade concerns too, will subside as tough talk yields compromise. The Two Es of Earnings and Employment will power markets higher, lifting Bullseye stocks by an even greater amount. I’m bullish on the economy and excited about the portfolio, which I’ve organized around five key themes: Economic Expansion, Electric Vehicles, Healthcare Solutions, Transformative Technologies, Special Situations.

April 06, 2018

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4.1

As in the U.S. imports 4.1 times as much from China as it exports, which is why the White House believes China needs the U.S. more and will give ground during trade negotiations.
#WorkInProgress

85.1

As in Southwest Airlines reports a load factor of 85.1, its highest ever for the month of March.
#TaxCutsEqualMoreSpending

6,500

As in Tesla burns through $6,500 per minute due to high operating costs and lagging production.
#GreatVisionPoorExecution

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“Not that I am aware of. I am a power user of the internet.”
–Facebook Founder Mark Zuckerberg when asked during a press conference whether the board had asked him to step down. 
#ArroganceIsUnflattering

“This is a big company making a strategic change. The simple thing would be to recruit a team from all the big financial players, but we’re specifically recruiting from Silicon Valley.”
–Goldman’s recently named Head of Consumer Banking Jeff Winner on hiring 80 engineers for the new San Francisco office.

#TshirtsNotTies

“This is such a hard golf course to play catch up on. If you start to chase it around here, that’s when you start to make mistakes.”  
–Rory McIlroy after his best-ever start at the Masters Golf Tournament. 

#CoolHead